Did Schmidt Panic?

On political news, in a discussion of the continuing meltdown of the Schmidt switch, MLive commentator ppwiii writes

I think they redistricted him giving him the far s.e. side of GR, the area around Calvin and the far n.e. side. I don’t think either is Dem friendly. I have always suspected he was threatened with a capable GOP opponent in his new District and he panicked, agreeing to follow the bad/stupid advise of Bolger on how to handle the switch.

Redistricting may have been some factor, but its not sufficient. Schmidt was on track to win the seat in November. His strong appeal to conservative centrist voters coupled with a presidential election would have put him on track. Base for the district:
2004 – 47 D
2008 – 55 D
2010 – 46 D

Likely outcome with a the polarized electorate: 49 D, with perhaps 15 percent in play (that would be 6 – 7,000 votes). That’s entirely winnable.

In its configuration, the seat is set up for Shana Shroll (CC-19), since it would become an open seat in the off year (2014). In off-year elections, the R definitely will have the advantage, particularly if the seat is open.


Cross posted at Windmillin’

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